With Nintendo Switch 2 Waiting in the Wings, Sales of the Original Switch and Its Games Continue to Tumble

Nintendo's latest financial report reveals a downward revision of its hardware sales forecast, citing "below expectations" sales of the Switch console and its games. For the first nine months of the fiscal year, dedicated game console sales dropped 31.7% year-over-year to 895.5 billion yen (approximately $5.7 billion), reflecting decreased sales of both the Switch and its software. Mobile and IP-related income also suffered, declining 33.9% year-over-year to 49.7 billion yen (approximately $320 million), largely attributed to the tough comparison with 2023's highly successful The Super Mario Bros. Movie. This resulted in a 27.3% year-on-year decrease in gross profit to 565.5 billion yen (approximately $3.6 billion).

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This marks the second consecutive downward revision of Nintendo's financial forecast for the year ending March 2025. The company now anticipates even lower Switch hardware sales, reducing its projection by 1.5 million units to 11 million, and software sales by 10 million to 150 million. While sales declines are expected for an eight-year-old console, the drop is steeper than Nintendo initially predicted. Despite this, the Switch has achieved remarkable success, surpassing 150 million units sold. While overtaking the PlayStation 2's 160 million sales might be challenging, the Nintendo DS's 154 million sales record is within reach.

Nintendo characterized Switch and software sales during its third quarter (ending December 31, 2024) as "stable, given the platform's eighth year." Overall sales for the Switch family of systems decreased by 30.6% year-on-year to 9.54 million units, with software sales down 24.4% to 123.98 million units. However, Nintendo highlighted strong performance from new releases: The Legend of Zelda: Echoes of Wisdom (3.91 million), Super Mario Party Jamboree (6.17 million), Mario Kart 8 Deluxe (5.38 million), and Nintendo Switch Sports (2.63 million) during the quarter. Mario & Luigi: Brothership also achieved sales of 1.4 million units.

Super Mario Party Jamboree stands out, exceeding the sales pace of previous Mario Party titles on the Switch within its first 11 weeks of release (October 17, 2024). Significantly, Nintendo reported a record-high 129 million annual playing users in 2024, indicating sustained player engagement despite the console's age. Nintendo noted that "Nintendo Switch unit sales declined year-on-year, but even in the eighth year since its launch in March 2017, Nintendo Switch continues to attract the interest of consumers, and sales in some weeks during the holiday season exceeded same-week sales of the previous year."

Given the financial results, investor anticipation for the Nintendo Switch 2 is high. Nintendo mentioned upcoming releases for the original Switch: Xenoblade Chronicles X: Definitive Edition (March 20 release), and Pokémon Legends: Z-A and Metroid Prime 4: Beyond (scheduled for 2025). The company reaffirmed the Switch 2's 2025 release, previously announced on January 16th, and promised a dedicated Switch 2 Direct on April 2nd with further details, along with global hands-on events.